clc,clear
a=[11 5 4 7 16 6 5 7 ...
13 6 5 7 12 5 4 6 ...
9 5 5 11 29 21 17 20 ...
27 13 9 10 16 6 5 7 ...
11 5 5 6 12 7 7 10 ...
15 10 9 11 15 10 10 16 ...
26 21 23 36 50 45 45 49 ...
57 43 40 44 52 43 42 45 ...
52 41 39 41 48 35 34 35 ...
42 34 36 43 55 48 54 65 ...
80 70 74 85 101 89 88 90 ...
100 87 88 89 104 89 89 90 ...
106 96 94 99 109 99 96 102];
Rt=tiedrank(a);
n=length(a);
t=1:n;
Qs=1-6/(n*(n^2-1))sum((t-Rt).^2);
T=Qssqrt(n-2)/sqrt(1-Qs^2);
t_0=tinv(0.975,n-2);
b=diff(a);
m=ar(b,2,'ls');
bhat=predict(m,b');
bhat(end+1)=forecast(m,b',1);
ahat=[a(1),a+bhat'];
delta=abs((ahat(1:end-1)-a)./a);
writematrix(ahat,'anli15_2.xlsx');
writematrix(delta,'anli15_2.xlsx','Sheet',1,'Range','A3');