我需要解答以下的问题：
In planning region's campaign launch, you believe that 15% of your primary target market in the region will attend the launch. Use this assumption to estimate the numbers of the primary target market that you expect to attend in each region. Also estimate the likelihood that 30% of the primary target market will attend in each region. Explain your reasoning for both estimates.
我的其中一个目标市场如下：region -SSC22015 18-34 岁男性
region age gender population
SSC22015 18 M 258
SSC22015 19 M 282
SSC22015 20 M 254
SSC22015 21 M 263
SSC22015 22 M 306
SSC22015 23 M 311
SSC22015 24 M 316
SSC22015 25 M 302
SSC22015 26 M 372
SSC22015 27 M 320
SSC22015 28 M 356
SSC22015 29 M 380
SSC22015 30 M 455
SSC22015 31 M 428
SSC22015 32 M 414
SSC22015 33 M 410
SSC22015 34 M 396
Total 5823
我的解答思路和尝试过的方法 ：我尝试了用binomial distribution 的方法来解读这个问题：
qbinom(0.15,5823,0.5)
qbinom(0.30,5823,0.5)
[1] 2872
[1] 2891
这个计算结果好像不对。请教这要怎么解啊？